Emperador’s Scotch Whisky Outlook
Emperador Inc. recently acknowledged a cyclical slowdown in global demand for Scotch whisky, especially in key markets like North America, China, and Europe. Overall whisky revenue dipped 1% in 2024 (₱25.25 B vs. ₱25.67 B in 2023), with net income down ~9% to ₱4.5 B.
Q1 2025: A Sharper Decline
The trend intensified in Q1 2025, with whisky revenue falling 13% YoY to ₱4.54 B and profit plunging 56% to ₱404 M. Despite current softness, CEO Winston S. Co stressed the dip is temporary and expects a rebound in 2026.
Strategic Expansion Fuelled by ₱4 B Investment
To prepare for renewed demand, Emperador is investing ₱4 billion in capex in 2025, primarily to:
- Nearly complete Dalmore distillery expansion, doubling its production capacity and enhancing visitor experience.
- Expand maturation capacity at the Invergordon site from 45.4 ha to 92 ha—adding storage for 1.5 million additional casks.
These moves aim to bolster supply readiness for the anticipated recovery.
Market & Tariff Dynamics
With North America representing 10–12% of its whisky export business, Emperador is engaging distributors to stabilize shelf prices amid U.S. tariff pressures. Meanwhile, India halved whisky taxes—ushering in new growth potential, with Emperador already coordinating with local partners .
Brandy Segment: A Bright Spot
In contrast, Emperador’s brandy arm surged ahead: Q1 income skyrocketed 76% YoY to ₱1.44 B (versus ₱823 M in 2024). This segment is poised for a stronger performance through the rest of 2025.
Analyst View: Downside Risk
Analyst firm CLSA downgraded Emperador stock to “Underperform,” citing ongoing weakness in global whisky consumption and the drag from U.S. tariffs, cutting their 2025–26 forecasts by ~20–30%.Discover more about whisky casks and promotions at whiskybulletin.com.