TL;DR

Emperador reports declining Scotch whisky revenue in 2024 and Q1 2025 but expects a rebound in 2026. It is investing ₱4B to expand production and storage. Its brandy segment showed strong growth, while analysts cite downside risks from tariffs and weak demand.

credits to: businessmirror.com.ph

Emperador’s Scotch Whisky Outlook

Emperador Inc. recently acknowledged a cyclical slowdown in global demand for Scotch whisky, especially in key markets like North America, China, and Europe. Overall whisky revenue dipped 1% in 2024 (₱25.25 B vs. ₱25.67 B in 2023), with net income down ~9% to ₱4.5 B.

Q1 2025: A Sharper Decline

The trend intensified in Q1 2025, with whisky revenue falling 13% YoY to ₱4.54 B and profit plunging 56% to ₱404 M. Despite current softness, CEO Winston S. Co stressed the dip is temporary and expects a rebound in 2026.

Strategic Expansion Fuelled by ₱4 B Investment

To prepare for renewed demand, Emperador is investing ₱4 billion in capex in 2025, primarily to:

  • Nearly complete Dalmore distillery expansion, doubling its production capacity and enhancing visitor experience.
  • Expand maturation capacity at the Invergordon site from 45.4 ha to 92 ha—adding storage for 1.5 million additional casks.

These moves aim to bolster supply readiness for the anticipated recovery.

Market & Tariff Dynamics

With North America representing 10–12% of its whisky export business, Emperador is engaging distributors to stabilize shelf prices amid U.S. tariff pressures. Meanwhile, India halved whisky taxes—ushering in new growth potential, with Emperador already coordinating with local partners .

Brandy Segment: A Bright Spot

In contrast, Emperador’s brandy arm surged ahead: Q1 income skyrocketed 76% YoY to ₱1.44 B (versus ₱823 M in 2024). This segment is poised for a stronger performance through the rest of 2025.

Analyst View: Downside Risk

Analyst firm CLSA downgraded Emperador stock to “Underperform,” citing ongoing weakness in global whisky consumption and the drag from U.S. tariffs, cutting their 2025–26 forecasts by ~20–30%.Discover more about whisky casks and promotions at whiskybulletin.com.

Frequently Asked QuestionsWhy is Emperador's Scotch whisky revenue declining?

Emperador is experiencing a cyclical slowdown in global demand for Scotch whisky, particularly in key markets like North America, China, and Europe.When does Emperador expect whisky demand to rebound?

Emperador's CEO expects a rebound in Scotch whisky demand to occur in 2026.What is Emperador doing to prepare for the rebound?

Emperador is investing ₱4 billion in 2025 to nearly complete the Dalmore distillery expansion and significantly increase maturation capacity at Invergordon.How is Emperador's brandy segment performing?

Emperador's brandy segment is performing strongly, with Q1 2025 income skyrocketing 76% year-on-year.What is the analyst view on Emperador's outlook?

Analyst firm CLSA downgraded Emperador stock to 'Underperform,' citing ongoing weakness in global whisky consumption and the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Frequently Asked QuestionsWhy is Emperador's Scotch whisky revenue declining?

Due to a cyclical slowdown in global demand, especially in key markets like North America, China, and Europe.When does Emperador expect whisky demand to rebound?

The company's CEO expects a rebound in Scotch whisky demand to occur in 2026.What is Emperador doing to prepare for the rebound?

Investing ₱4 billion to expand the Dalmore distillery and increase maturation capacity at Invergordon.How is Emperador's brandy segment performing?

It is performing strongly, with Q1 2025 income skyrocketing 76% year-on-year.What is the analyst view on Emperador's outlook?

CLSA downgraded the stock to 'Underperform,' citing ongoing whisky weakness and U.S. tariff impacts.